I don't think that anyone has assumed that these interventions were more than firebreaks against too rapid a realignment of the dollar , but they stand to lose what little impact they've had if not enforced evenly. The series prior to the past two had been weak 100+ pip strikes that had been absorbed and returned within a few hours. These were apparently unsterilized as well ( ie. the direct purchase of dollars wasn't offset by counterpositions in alternate assets , such as bonds ) , which should have amplified their impact. The latest rounds have been coordinated, but no more effective. The threat of a prolonged coordinated intervention climate should have provided more stability than it has. Perhaps the US administration's ambivalence regarding the strong dollar , lack of eur/jpy correlation , and the generally foul odors emitted by US equity markets were compelling enough to inspire the BOJ, and most others, to accept a 115 dollar as inevitable ? For a good discussion of the mechanics of interventions check out this thread on Wilmott.com
Many of you have been reading this blog may have noticed that my blogging frequency has increased over the past few weeks as I got short the market. As you can imagine I am down money since getting short the market, this is the time when most people pull away from posting. But my goal is to stay active and involved and show you that trading is not always rainbows and butterflies. It is times like these that the things I have been sharing over the past couple of weeks are so important. You need to trade small relative to your account. I have a decent short position in the market and my portfolios are set up to make some awesome returns if we finally turn lower. But something I would like to point out is that my account is 70% Cash. I learned a long time ago how important it is to live by the rules you preach. Because of my discipline I am able to continue to hold my positions, I have time and capital on my side. I can't stress enough how important it is not to get to big....
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