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My time off!

Although I am not making any trades right now I am using my time off to look for possible trade ideas, Analyze my trading results from the past 6 months, and set goals for the next 6 months. I think it is a great exercise to not make any trades at least for a couple of days upon returning from vacation, it allows you time to get back in tune with the market which I feel like I am doing. Plus I am just not comfortable jumping into positions with the major indexes and stocks and new bull market highs. Here are some of the things I am looking for in the next few weeks to months:

1) A bid up in VIX, I do not think we are out of the woods yet. There could be more frozen twinkies out there like the GS that can provide reason for selling.

2) Commodities to run through the summer, especially oil.

3) The dollar to pull back in reaction to inflationary implications from a run in commodities.

4) A run in Commodities could finally show inflationary pressures from low interest rates and we could see the fed start to really consider raising interest rates, maybe we see a bump up in interest rates in the 4th QTR. But this is in my opinion only going to happen if we get that overheated run in commodities. Both of which could hurt stock prices.

I know these are not certainties but they are scenarios that I think are possible. But I am open to the fact that other scenarios could play out.

Also before the month is over I am considering taking the Market Awareness Profile. As we have all come to know trading is largely a mental game. The test is $100 and I am interested in it to see if I can glean any more insight from such a test. Check it out and see if it interest you. I will let you guys know if I decide to take it. I will also post the results.

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