April 2010 OPEX Results

I never posted April OPEX results because I just didn't make the time and update my spreadsheet. The truth is I had a few plays and I knew it was roughly a break even month so I wasn't concerned with it. This is a working spreadsheet model that I'm trying to refine and keep simple. I'm still in the process of rebuilding all my past trades going back to July 2008 when I first started trading anything other than a covered call. In addition to keeping stats like winning/losing % and average gain/loss, I also want to keep track of how much commissions I'm paying versus the net profit, and try and find a return on risk measurement that makes sense. Right now I'm still only deploying a little bit of capital until I define my overall portfolio strategy in terms of position sizing, once that is established I need to keep track of monthly and total portfolio return or return on value at risk. I might have to keep two numbers, one being the actual return on risk for the month, and then keep track of how much risk I'm actually taken as a percentage of available capital. I don't know, still a lot of questions right now. My ultimate goal is to have more winners than losers, and have the average win larger than the average loss. I haven't established a real threshold yet like 60% winners or $500 average win, etc. Maybe in time I refine those goals. Right now I'm keeping things simple as I find my way in to an overall long-term strategy.

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WOW! I think that sums it up

Many of you have been reading this blog may have noticed that my blogging frequency has increased over the past few weeks as I got short the market. As you can imagine I am down money since getting short the market, this is the time when most people pull away from posting. But my goal is to stay active and involved and show you that trading is not always rainbows and butterflies. It is times like these that the things I have been sharing over the past couple of weeks are so important. You need to trade small relative to your account. I have a decent short position in the market and my portfolios are set up to make some awesome returns if we finally turn lower. But something I would like to point out is that my account is 70% Cash. I learned a long time ago how important it is to live by the rules you preach. Because of my discipline I am able to continue to hold my positions, I have time and capital on my side. I can't stress enough how important it is not to get to big....

Stay Small, Stay Out of Trouble

To expand on my post from yesterday about patience. I want to talk about a very important element that allows patience in a position, and that is staying small. If you trade too big RELATIVE to your personal account size, you are likely to be forced to exit the trade before the trade works in your favor. Many trades myself included have all experienced the pains of trading a position way too large given our account size. There is this predisposition out there that the only way you are going to make money in the financial markets is if you are trading 10 lots of options and 1000 shares of stock at the time. This is not the case, and if this is your mentality you will likely ensure yourself trouble. We have all read the stories of traders blowing up their account. I personally think a good rule of thumb is to not risk more than 5% of your account value on any one position. Good Luck Trading! In The Money Trades And 1 favor that we ask: If you like the hard work w...

more good news from FXStreet : Tom Fitzpatrick, senior technical analyst at Citibank in New York. Monday, July 15, 2002 "Parity is a psychological, not a technical level...and whether we pause around parity or not, we are likely to see significant further dollar losses...Our initial target is $1.03 to $1.0450. If that level is taken out, it actually casts a question mark against the whole of the dollar's rally of the last seven years, and could open up a full-blown bear market for the dollar." Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Monday, July 15, 2002 "The dollar is under pressure from everything from economic problems to asset reallocation away from the U.S. and corporate accounting problems. It's difficult to see any positive factor for the dollar at the moment. The root of the problem is the U.S. current account deficit. If the U.S. doesn't have to attract an enormous amount of foreign capital, people wouldn't have to wor...

Forex Is Crazy

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