UNG under consideration

So last night I was watching a show on the discovery channel and natural gas was on my mind. So I decided to check out the UNG ETF that looks to have finally put in a bottom around $6.72. It has since traded above its 50 day MA which is currently at $7.56 but has remained below its 200 day MA $9.17. I really do not see this one moving up very fast anytime soon, at least not between now and July expiration.

On the chart below I highlighted the area of profitability in grey, almost exactly linds up with the 50 & 200 day MA's.

I am looking to sell 10 July '10 8/9 strangle for about $0.46. For about $0.10 I could buy the wings and turn it into an iron condor, but I am not sure that it is really neccessary. I think the 50 day MA and 200 day MA will act as a natural box between now and July expiration.

The margin required to put this trade on is about $1,475 for a 10 lot. My stop will be a 50% loss of the total gain on this position, which is a moving target that represents about $230 in loss vs a $460 in max gain. I intend to hold this one till expiration except in the event that I can buy it back for $0.10 or less before expiration.

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